Some rights reserved by arash_rk

Editor’s note: This is a cross post from Let the Sparks Fly! written by Mark Skapinker. It is a delightfully positive outlook on the prospects for the Canadian startup union. Mark is Cofounder and Managing Partner at Brightspark, which earlier this week was awarded CVCA’s deal of the year award.

Normally this is the time of the year that really stresses me out. It is late September in Ontario, summer is over, the leaves are starting to change colour, and while it is still pretty nice out, it’s real clear that it is downhill from here to winter, with warm days more than seven months away.

But something in the local tech industry feels a little different, and it feels like things are getting better. Some of us have been lamenting the state of the Canadian VC industry for years now, and Rim’s woes should by all rights make the local scene seem even bleaker – but people in the industry don’t seem to be listening. A whole lot of activities that are happening seem to signal an awakening spring and everyone seems just a little more optimistic.

Of note are more entrepreneurs pitching really interesting offerings. I keep meeting Canadian entrepreneurs with great ideas, great opportunities and a yearning for success.

Surrounding that are a number of exits from local companies – most notably (for the industry and especially for us at Brightspark, where we saw more than a 23X return on our investment) is the Radian6 sale to Salesforce.com. This exit proved that great, money-making businesses can be hatched in Canada with local talent, local VCs and a positive outcome for the local economy. Add to that a series of other small acquisitions along with some interesting exits.

And then there are the new micro-funds which are growing despite the stalling of the traditional industry, with experienced and talented managers helping a new series of companies – I am referring to our colleagues – Duncan and Robin at Mantella; Matt at GoldenVP; the teams at Xtreme, bnotions and Real Ventures; Daniel at Klass Capital; Bill Dinardo; and Joel at Trilogy; all who are making a very meaningful difference to our industry. MaRS is expanding, IAF is investing, I hear some traditional Canadian VCs may be finalizing new funds, and the government funds continue their part in providing capital.

We aren’t out of the woods yet, but it definitely feels like now is a great time to be part of the Internet, software, mobile, Cloud, and payment industries. Markets are growing, and these industries are creating value while the rest of the economy questions itself. If this really is a marathon, now is a great time to be heading out.

If we can keep up this momentum and deliver a few more winners, we may look back at this time as the period when the new Canadian industry started thriving.

At Brightspark, we remain thrilled with our VC fund’s performance. Our multiple exits puts our performance way ahead of top quartile funds anywhere in the world. And we think the remaining companies in our portfolio have the potential of taking our fund to new levels. Our focus on investing in great teams, markets we understand, and with an early stage fund of entrepreneurs helping entrepreneurs is paying off really well.

To those people who have written off our participation in the industry, we continue to focus on remaining a significant part of this industry, and we think the next few years could be very exciting for our funds and the Canadian industry.

Kanetix, Canada’s first online insurance marketplace provides over a million quotes per year to consumers looking for insurance, yesterday announced it has been acquired by Monitor Clipper Partners, a Cambridge based private equity firm that manages $2B in capital.

Co-founded in 1999 by George Small and Gregory Ellis (who will retain significant stakes in Kanetix), the Toronto based company will now be led by Yousry Bissada who has joined on as CEO and Andrew Lo who has joined as Chief Information Officer.

Yousry and Andrew previously grew Filogix from $3M to $60M in revenue. Monitor Clipper Partners leveraged recapitalized of Filogix in 2004 successfully exited for $212M to Davis & Henderson in 2006. It is encouraging to see experienced repeat teams growing Canadian companies.

Here’s to a repeat performance.

Today IBM just announced the $387MM acquisition of Toronto-based Algorithmics. It begs a couple of open questions. Is Algorithmics after being sold to Fitch for $174MM in 2004 still a Canadian startup? Can a 30 year old company like MKS be considered a startup? Is Eloqua who’s HQ moved to Virginia still a Canadian company?

If you imagine that Algorithmics is the second Canadian software startup acquired for more than $300MM in the past 6 months. Then to answer Dan Morel’s question,  if this was “The One Billion Dollar Year” for Canadian startup acquisitions, yes it is.  Only if you consider Algorithmics still a Canadian startup and 30 year old MKS a startup, then combined with Radian6 the acquisitions total just over $1B, everything else is icing on the proverbial cake.

Congratulations to the Algorithmics team and alumni.

Adding to the TechVibes list of Canadian Acquisitions:

1/5/2011 – Victoria’s Flock acquired by Zynga

1/6/2011 - Edmonton’s Attassa acquired by YouSendIt

1/31/2011 - Toronto’s Adenyo acquired by Motricity for $100 Million

2/8/2011 - Toronto’s MyThum acquired by OLSON

3/3/2011 - Toronto’s CoverItLive acquired by Demand Media

3/11/2011 - Vancouver’s Sayvee acquired by Bandzoogle

3/26/2011 -  Waterloo’s Tiny Hippos acquired by RIM

3/30/2011 – New Brunswick’s Radian6 acquired by Salesforce for $326 Million

4/7/2011 - Waterloo’s MKS acquired by Parametric Technology for $292 Million

4/8/2011 – Toronto’s PushLife acquired by Google for $25 Million

4/27/2011 – Montreal’s Tungle acquired by RIM

4/28/2011 – Montreal’s Coradiant acquired by BMC

5/10/2011 - Toronto’s Conversition acquired by e-Rewards

6/3/2011 – Waterloo’s PostRank acquired by Google

6/7/2011 - Toronto’s DealFrenzy acquired by Intertainment Media

7/8/2011 – Toronto’s FiveMobile acquired by Zynga

8/30/2011 – Vancouver’s Zite acquired by CNN for an estimated $25MM

9/1/2011 – Toronto’s Algorithmics acquired by IBM for $387MM

Editor’s note: This is a guest post by Jesse Rodgers who is currently the Director of Student Innovation at the University of Waterloo responsible for the VeloCity Residence & he is also the cofounder of TribeHR. Jesse specializes in product design, web application development and emerging web technologies in higher education. He has been a key member of the Waterloo startup community hosting StartupCampWaterloo and other events to bring together and engage local entrepreneurs. Follow him on Twitter @jrodgers or WhoYouCallingAJesse.com.

 Some rights reserved by quinn.anya

Incubators are not a new addition to the financing and support for startups and entrepreneurs. On the surface, incubators and accelerators seem like a low cost way for VCs and government support organizations to cluster entrepreneurs and determine the top-notch talent out the accepted cohort. The opportunity to investing in real estate and services that enable companies where the winners are chosen by the merits of the businesses being built. It feels like a straight-forward, relatively safe bet to ensure a crop of companies that are set to require additional growth capital where part of the products and personalities have been derisked through process.

However, its not as simple as putting small amounts of investment into a high potential company. An incubator is a business and it’s sole purpose should be to make money.

What are the basics of an incubator?

The basic variables in setting up an incubator business are:

• Cost of the expertise, facilities, services and other overhead
• Amount of $ to be invested/deployed
• Number of startups
• Equity being given in exchange for cash
• Return on the total investment

There are cost of operations: real estate, connectivity, marketing, programs and services for the entrepreneurs, and the salaries of the individuals to find the startups, provide the services and build successes. These costs are often covered by governments, in exchange for the impact in job creation and taxation base. We’ve seen a rise in incubators that are funded on an investment thesis, where an individual or a set of “limited partners” provide the initial investment in exchange for an investment in the companies being incubated.

How much do incubators cost?

The goal is to efficiently deploy capital to produce successful investments. I’m going to explore how incubators make money by making a few assumptions based on the incubator/accelerator models we’ve seen in Toronto, Montreal, Palo Alto and New York.

Basic assumptions:

• Capital Investments: 10 startups x 20k = 200k invested with an assumed ‘post-money valuation’ of $2.2MM
  • This means you now own 9.1% in 10 startups each with a post-money valuation of $220k
• Support Costs: 10 startups x $10k = $100k
  • This is the cost of real estate, furniture, telecommunications, internet connectivity, etc.

Alright, we’re planning to deploy $200k and it need to provide approximately $100k in services just to provide the basics for the startups. We’ve spent $300k for the first cohort and and that is before you pay any salaries, host an event, etc.

Additional costs:

• People:
  • $100k per year salary for one person to rule them all. Call them executive director or dean or something.
  • Assuming you’re not doing this to deploy your own capital, the person or people in charge probably need to collect a salary to pay their mortgages, food, etc.
• Events - Following the model set forth by YCombinator or TechStars we have 2 main types of events. Mentoring events where the cohort is exposed to the mentors and other industry luminaries to help them make connections and learn from the experience of others. The other event is a Demo Day, designed to bring outside investors and press together to drive investment and attention in the current cohort, plus attract the next cohort of startups.
  • Mentoring event: $1k for food costs with 25 founders
  • Demo Day: approximately $5k
  • Assumption: 10 mentoring events plus a demo day per cohort adds $40k.

The estimated costs are approximately $340,000/cohort. Assuming 2 cohorts/year plus the staffing salary costs, an incubator is looking at $780,000 that includes 40 investments and a total of $4.4MM post-money valuation. If we assume that I’m a little off on the total capital outlay, and we build in a 30% margin of error this brings the annual budget to appromimately $1MM/year to operate.

How do incubators make money?

Incubators make money when the startups they take an equity stake in get big and successful. The best exits for an incubator come when one of their startups is acquired. Why acquired? Because the path to getting acquired path is shorter than the path to going public which would also allow the incubator to divest of their investment.

Let’s do the math. If your running an incubator hoping to get respectable returns on the $1,000,000 you’ve laid out above, let’s say it’s not the mythical 10 bagger but a more conservative 3x, the incubator needs one of the companies to exit at near $30,000,000. It can be one at $30MM or any combination smaller than that totalling $30MM. This needs to happen before any dilution and follow-on funding for your cadre of companies. You have to assuming that they can make it to acquisition on the $10,000 and services you’ve provided. For more on incubator math, check out there’s an incubator bubble and it will pop.

The bad news is that it isn’t as simple as that. Startups are not just something that exist in a vacum. There are a lot of unknown variables that can make or break an incubator.

• percentage of startups that fail (or turn into zombies) in the first two years after investment
• time frame return is expected
• how many startups currently produce that kind of return annually
• total number of startups that receive investment in any given year
• total number of acquisitions in any given year
• avg. number of years a startup takes to get to acquisition (because they aren’t going public)
• avg. price a startup sells for (I bet those talent acquisitions drag the average way down)
• what do VC’s currently spend on their deal pipeline?

It is the unknowns that are where the gamble exists. You can tweak the numbers all you would like but assume startups have a no better fail rate then any small business. The common thinking on that is 25% of businesses fail in the first year, 70% in the  first five years? If just more than half of those companies are alive in one year you are doing well. If one out of those 20 is acquired in 5 years and you get 3x return do you succeed? Do you have to run the incubator for the 5 years at $1MM/year to be able to play the odds?

Maybe this is why so many incubators focus on office space, it’s easy to show LPs what they are getting for their $5MM for 5 year investment, plus an impressive number of “new” startups that have been touched by the program (often without an exit, you know the way incubators make money).

What am I missing?

Editor’s note: This is a guest post by Jesse Rodgers who is currently the Director of Student Innovation at the University of Waterloo responsible for the VeloCity Residence & he is also the cofounder of TribeHR. Jesse specializes in product design, web application development and emerging web technologies in higher education. He has been a key member of the Waterloo startup community hosting StartupCampWaterloo and other events to bring together and engage local entrepreneurs. Follow him on Twitter @jrodgers or WhoYouCallingAJesse.com.

This is a cross post from Mark Evans Tech written by Mark Evans of ME Consulting.

For those of us who work in the Canadian social media and startup circles, there was some celebrating earlier this week when BackType announced it had been sold to Twitter.

Lots of credit goes to founders Christopher Golda and Mike Montano, who have made BackType one of the leading services to track and analyze social media activity.

Without raining on the BackType parade, a question that begs to be asked is whether BackType should have been funded in Canada as opposed to the U.S.

To provide some background, Golda and Montano were electrical engineering graduates from the University of Toronto, who showed their entrepreneurial chops by starting a service called iPartee. While the business didn’t succeed, Golda and Montano proceeded to start BackType in 2008 as a way to search for blog comments.

To jump-start the business, they applied and were accepted into Paul Graham’s YCombinator startup program in Silicon Valley, which coughed up $15,000 for a 6% in BackType. This let Golda and Montano create a prototype they could pitch to investors. Over the next three years, BackType raised $1.3-million and expanded into Twitter search.

In hindsight, BackType is a big fish that got away from Canadian investors. I would hazard to guess that in 2008 getting seed capital from Canadian investors was a remote possibility for Golda and Montano, which is likely one of the reasons they applied for the YCombinator program.

The question is whether BackType would get funded today in Canada. It appears the seed and startup investment landscape has changed with the emergence of new funds such as Real Ventures. Meanwhile, there has been a growing number of startup acquisitions, which should bolster the confidence of investors and entrepreneurs.

Do Canadian investors now have the ability and willingness to finance smart entrepreneurs with ideas? Or do Canadian investors still need to see traction such as a finished product, customers or revenue?

For more on the BackType story, check out this TechVibes story.

Congratulations Christopher Golda (@golda) and Michael Montano (@michaelmontano) on Twitter acquiring BackType. We’ve written about BackType since their acceptance in YCombinator (fortunate that we didn’t give iPartee their previous startup too much attention). This is another amazing acquisition of Canadian startups by a Silicon Valley company (make it 16 acquisitions since Jan 2011 see TechVibes). I think Dan was right, this could be a $1B year for Canadian startup acquisitions.

The BackType team had already relocated from Toronto to San Francisco. And it looks like the relocation to the Twitter offices should be much easier:

Our team’s relocating to the Twitter office. We’re very excited to not only join an amazing company that’s changing the world, but to continue building products in pursuit of our shared vision with Twitter.

Finally, I’d like to thank all our investors and advisors, especially Y Combinator, Toni Schneider and True Ventures, Josh Felser and David Samuel from Freestyle Capital, Manu Kumar, Chris Sacca, Raymond Tonsing and Seth Berman.

What is amazing/disappointing is that there are no Canadian investors along side the group of amazing investors assembled by Chris and Michael.

If you haven’t heard by now, RIM is having a horrible year. Their earnings meeting yesterday was chock full of bad news:

Q1 revenue: $4.9 billion vs. $5.15 billion consensus
Q1 EPS: $1.33 vs. $1.32 consensus
Q1 shipments: 13.2 million vs. 13.5 million units expected
Q2 revenue: $4.2-$4.8 billion vs. $5.46 billion consensus
Q2 EPS: $0.75-$1.05 vs. $1.40 consensus
Q2 shipments: None given vs. 13.5-14 million units expectation

One caption I read put it best – RIIMMMMMBEEEERRRRRRR.

Out of the downfall the Globe and Mail was hypothesizing that the fall of RIM was catastrophic for Canada’s tech eco-system. The article was a bit light on fact as to why it would rip apart the Canadian eco-system, and my initial gut reaction was “RIM has almost no impact on any of the startups I know.” But then I decided to go and look at the facts.

Since roughly 2008 RIM has bought the following Canadian startups:

• Chalk Media for $22m
• Viigo
• Tungle
• TinyHippo

So they’ve probably flushed about $60mm-$80mm into the Toronto ecosystem over 3 years in exits. On top of that they have the BlackBerry Partners Fund (with about $150mm in cash) which has invested in several Canadian startups. Lets also not forget that the eco-system around their partners. BlackBerry’s platform has created opportunity for mobile dev shop’s like Fivemobile and Xtremelabs to exist. But it feels like those guys do most of their business in iPhone and Android.

So between exits and investment via BB partner funds they have probably kicked in about $100mm to the Canadian startup eco-system over the past 2-3 years. Which is not something to sneeze at. Having said that, Google (not HQ’d in Canada) has kicked in probably close to $100mm in the past 12 months… just in exits. So maybe its also not something to brag about either.

Putting these numbers together, makes me feel more ambivalent about RIM’s impact on the tech eco-system in Canada. Lets be clear, we’re talking about a decline in the short to medium term, not a total shutdown. In that decline I expect RIM to take an even lesser role in the eco-system than before. And I’m not sure it matters.

(Small end note as a UW alumnus. I’m not sure RIM’s downfall will have that big an impact on the school either. Big companies like Microsoft, Google, Facebook are still going to fight over UW’s top talent – their won’t a shortage of jobs for UW’s engineering community anytime soon. Maybe Laurier’s business & marketing grads… oh low blow).

Edit 1 – Techvibe just put together a more comprehensive list than mine – http://www.techvibes.com/blog/techvibes-comprehensive-list-of-canadian-tech-acquisitions-50-and-counting-2011-06-08. It is an even a bigger year than I thought!

Edit 2 – I have been corrected that the Coradiant acquisition was more likely $100m-$150m. Updated below. Bigger than I thought! Glad to see I was “under-reporting”

Interesting first 6 months to 2011. Check out this list of exits:

Radian6 – $326mm
Coradiant – $100mm (guess – this one has been tougher to size, some searching shows them to be around 100 employees with 10mm revenue?? That Akamai partnership feels pretty strategic though…)
Pushlife – $25mm
Tungle – $20mm (guess off of last raise/valuation)
PostRank – $15mm (consensus guess from asking around)
CoverItLive – $10mm (big guess)
tinyHippos – < $1mm (4 employees)
———————————-
About $495mm. Give or take $25mm depending on my math.

Firstly, this is a perfect example of how VC exit math works and the power of a fundmaker like Radian6.

But get this, we are exactly 6 months in and almost half way to…. well… July/August/December all kind of suck for doing deals… buuuutttt… maybe… maybe if I utter the amount… people will dream and we could maybe dreamily hit 1 BILLION DOLLARS in returns this year. Wow, 1 BILLION. Thats nine 0′s.

The Net Value of All Exits for 2011?? (by Adam Crowe, some rights reserved)

We’d need another big mama ala Radian6, and another 4 $20-$30mm exits. I could hazard a guess at a few companies that could exit for $20mm+ today and now, but the big, big question is, where will the big exit come from?

Kobo Books (@kobo)

They just raised $50mm. Not sure about the valuation, but we could size it at say $150mm – $300mm (I’d go higher because they are very young and having a $50mm raise means they have a vertigo inducing growth/revenue curve). And lets not forget the mainstream press chatting about an Apple acquisition. This could be a high 9 figure to billion dollar plus exit if something happens.

Freshbooks (@freshbooks)

They state over 2mm users on their home page. Lets say 10% are paying customers and they pay on average $30/month (looking at their pricing plans). 200k * $30/month * 12 months = $72mm in annual revenue. Even at 5% freemium conversion they are at $36mm. Thats a big customer base and a big chunky, sticky subscription revenue base.

Would love to hear from folks. What other startups do we have hanging about that could do a big exit? Am I missing any of the 2011 exits to date?

Ilya has confirmed today that PostRank has been acquired by Google.

The launch of AideRSS, the precursor to PostRank, was one of the first things we covered here on Startupnorth, so we are happy to see such a great outcome for the team.

We are extremely excited to join Google. We believe there is simply no better company on the web today that both understands the value of the engagement data we have been focusing on, and has the platform and reach to bring its benefits to the untold millions of daily, active Internet users. Stay tuned, we’ll be sure to share details on our progress in the coming months!

Of course, we wouldn’t be where we are today if it wasn’t for all the help, feedback, and support we’ve received from our community over the past four years—thank you all, you know who you are, and we truly couldn’t have done it without you!

Ilya also notes that the team will be moving to Mountain View as part of this acquisition.

Some rights reserved photo by Greenog

By now you have heard Microsoft is purchasing Skype for $8.5B, a company which was spun out from eBay in 2009 for $2.75B. In 18 months nearly $6B of value was created for investors, many of whom are Canadian pensioners. Faster than a speeding bullet, a courageous $300M investment in Skype has turned into nearly $1.1B. I for one would like to know who to thank at CPPIB.

This is not an apples to apples comparison, but the Skype investment tops the results of every fund CPPIB has invested in. If one factored in IRR this deal would blow everyone out of the water. Other Canadian pension funds are ramping up venture funds (e.g. INKEF). Wonderful news given the paucity of capital available in the Canadian ecosystem, however I would argue that Silver Lake, Andreessen Horowitz, and Index Ventures were important stakeholders – so perhaps what we’re really looking at is the Fantastic Four. It follows that Canadian LPs should concurrently invest into independent funds who will source opportunities and ensure alignment with entrepreneurs.

CPPIB Returns