2011, The 1 Billion Dollar Year??

Edit 1 – Techvibe just put together a more comprehensive list than mine – http://www.techvibes.com/blog/techvibes-comprehensive-list-of-canadian-tech-acquisitions-50-and-counting-2011-06-08. It is an even a bigger year than I thought!

Edit 2 – I have been corrected that the Coradiant acquisition was more likely $100m-$150m. Updated below. Bigger than I thought! Glad to see I was “under-reporting”

Interesting first 6 months to 2011. Check out this list of exits:

Radian6 – $326mm
Coradiant – $100mm (guess – this one has been tougher to size, some searching shows them to be around 100 employees with 10mm revenue?? That Akamai partnership feels pretty strategic though…)
Pushlife – $25mm
Tungle – $20mm (guess off of last raise/valuation)
PostRank – $15mm (consensus guess from asking around)
CoverItLive – $10mm (big guess)
tinyHippos – < $1mm (4 employees)
———————————-
About $495mm. Give or take $25mm depending on my math.

Firstly, this is a perfect example of how VC exit math works and the power of a fundmaker like Radian6.

But get this, we are exactly 6 months in and almost half way to…. well… July/August/December all kind of suck for doing deals… buuuutttt… maybe… maybe if I utter the amount… people will dream and we could maybe dreamily hit 1 BILLION DOLLARS in returns this year. Wow, 1 BILLION. Thats nine 0′s.

The Net Value of All Exits for 2011?? (by Adam Crowe, some rights reserved)

We’d need another big mama ala Radian6, and another 4 $20-$30mm exits. I could hazard a guess at a few companies that could exit for $20mm+ today and now, but the big, big question is, where will the big exit come from?

Kobo Books (@kobo)

They just raised $50mm. Not sure about the valuation, but we could size it at say $150mm – $300mm (I’d go higher because they are very young and having a $50mm raise means they have a vertigo inducing growth/revenue curve). And lets not forget the mainstream press chatting about an Apple acquisition. This could be a high 9 figure to billion dollar plus exit if something happens.

Freshbooks (@freshbooks)

They state over 2mm users on their home page. Lets say 10% are paying customers and they pay on average $30/month (looking at their pricing plans). 200k * $30/month * 12 months = $72mm in annual revenue. Even at 5% freemium conversion they are at $36mm. Thats a big customer base and a big chunky, sticky subscription revenue base.

Would love to hear from folks. What other startups do we have hanging about that could do a big exit? Am I missing any of the 2011 exits to date?

About Dan Morel

twitter: @dpmorel, email dan dot morel at gmail Dan is CTO and co-founder of Peek (www.peek.ly). Previously, he ran around the Caribbean (from Haiti to Trinidad) launching new businesses & products for Digicel - living in Kingston, Jamaica. Before that was a very early employee at Redknee, headed product development on their path to IPO. I'm a hacker and generalist business guy with my roots from University of Waterloo, Computer Science. linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/danmorel

  • http://www.getsnappay.com/ Jim Rudnick

    nice post here, Dan..and if I come up with a few more, I’ll post here…but in our neck of the woods, ie Hamilton, we’re still in the “angelCamp” areas…least in my way of thinking, eh!

  • http://twitter.com/dwalper Dustin Walper

    Given that Kobo was spawned out of Indigo and is a pretty key piece of their long-term strategy, I somewhat doubt they would be willing to sell it off?

  • Dan Morel

    It’d feel weird if Indigo still controlled the company given the caliber of the team and the other investors/partners involved.  I’ll see if I can get an answer from someone.

  • http://twitter.com/dwalper Dustin Walper

    Dan, send me a DM on Twitter.

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  • http://www.instigatorblog.com/ Benjamin Yoskovitz

    I believe the WSJ identified the Coradiant exit closer to $100-$150M. But it’s not technically a Canadian company, it’s HQ is in San Diego. It was founded here though and has a strong presence in Montreal. We can claim it just the same … number is definitely higher than what you’ve got though.

  • Dan Morel

    funny, that was the number I remember hearing and what I originally wrote when writing this (and how the halfway to $1B was at $500mm originally… not at $425mm :) ).  But when I started searching more I couldn’t find the source, nor did anybody remember the original value, and the best I could find was 100 employees, $10mm revenue from a marketing db…  sigh.

  • http://twitter.com/KatherineRoos Katherine Roos

    Great post!

  • http://twitter.com/KatherineRoos Katherine Roos

    Great post!

  • http://whoyoucallingajesse.com/ Jesse Rodgers

    The $290 Million sale of MKS (based in Kitchener, Randall Howard is a founder dating back to the 80′s) in the spring this year puts that total a lot closer to $1 Billion.

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